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  • Breakwater: The first festival uniting journalists from Poland, the Nordics and Central and Eastern Europe

    Investigative and high-quality journalism in practice: a three-day gathering of reporters, editors and media innovators in September 2026.

    Across Europe, democratic societies are facing increasingly sophisticated information threats. Foreign influence operations, disinformation campaigns, growing political polarization, unprecedented access to information, and declining trust in democratic institutions as well as editorial media, challenge the quality of public debate and in the end our democratic systems. A rapidly evolving AI landscape contribute to amplify these trends.

    Many initiatives focus on identifying and correcting false information, but fewer address the broader question of how to strengthen the information ecosystem that allows societies to resist manipulation in the first place. Breakwater is designed to address this challenge.

    Building on the historical legacy of Gdańsk as a symbol of democratic solidarity and connecting Nordic traditions of trust and transparency with the realities faced by frontline journalists in Central and Eastern Europe, Breakwater aims to strengthen the actors, networks and professional communities that underpin information integrity across the wider Nordic, Baltic Sea and Central-Eastern European region.

    Breakwater is not only an initiative to protect journalism, but a long-term contribution to strengthen democratic resilience and information integrity in this region. The purpose is to strengthen the conditions that enable citizens to form their own opinions necessary for democratic societies to function, based on access to credible information, independent journalism, critical reflection, and trusted spaces for security dialogue.

    Breakwater’s flagship event is the annual festival, taking place in Gdańsk for the first time in September 24-27, 2026.

    The festival consists of workshops, lectures, debates, meetings, and networking. From data exchange and cross-border investigations to OSINT techniques, creative uses of AI, uncovering disinformation, and transforming investigative stories into film, audio and television productions. Hands-on sessions with some of the best experts, sharing of tools, methods, and professional standards.

    This festival is for journalists, reporters, media professionals, freelancers, podcasters, NGO activists, watchdogs, whistleblowers, students – and everyone who believes in the power and purpose of quality journalism.

    Secure your tickets on the festival website, breakwaterfestival.org.

    Who is behind Breakwater

    Lead organiser is Fundacja Reporterów (Reporters Foundation), Poland’s only dedicated investigative-journalism hub, with deep experience in cross-border reporting and training. Core partners are Nordic and Baltic media organizations and universities, in particular the Barents Press Norway and UTSYN – Centre for Security and Resilience, as well as the European Solidarity
    Centre, the City of Gdańsk and other regional institutions.

    An experienced trio combining investigative reporting, Nordic security expertise and European philanthropy and network-building know-how constitutes the Breakwater leadership:

    • Wojciech Cieśla is a leading Polish investigative reporter, founder of Fundacja Reporterów and editor-in-chief of FRONTSTORY.PL, with more than two decades of experience exposing corruption and abuse of power across Central Europe.
    • Amund Trellevik is a Norwegian investigative journalist specializing in Russia, security policy and the Arctic, and a long-standing Barents Press leader with deep links to Nordic investigative and press-freedom networks.
    • Peter Matjašič is a civil-society and media-development leader with 15+ years of pan-European experience in philanthropy, EU advocacy and organizational development, currently directing Reference Circle and bringing strong fundraising and governance expertise.
  • Event: The Marginalization of Moderates

    At the annual conference World Expression Forum next week, UTSYN will chair a session on «The Marginalization of Moderates».

    When positions harden, dialogue becomes more difficult, and isolation can deepen. Today, boycotts and social exclusion are increasingly used as tools for moral signaling – but at what cost to democratic culture and public discourse? 

    On Monday June 1st the annual conference World Expression Forum (WEXFO) takes place at Lillehammer, and UTSYN’s director Ingrid Vik will chair a session on «The Marginalization of Moderates» with speakers Yuval Shany (professor of International Law) and Sharon Ben-Arie (Head of Diversity & Inclusion, Hebrew University).

    The session explores the mechanisms of ”canceling” and the growing pressure to sever ties rather than build bridges. The conversation examines what happens to the seekers of nuance when contact across divides is treated as betrayal. How do we sustain the courage to stay in the room when the world demands we walk out?

    The WEXFO program features global voices including Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Ressa, journalist and filmmaker Louis Theroux, and Megan Phelps‑Roper, alongside experts, activists, journalists and young leaders from across the world.

    Secure your spot at the conference here.

  • The Era of Sanctions Warfare

    How the West can deter the Russian and Chinese military through their reliance on Western microelectronics

    Cathrine Lagerberg, MSc, Senior Manager, Intelligence Services & Cyber Risk, Deloitte AS

    Since before the Cold War, the Soviet Union has relied on advanced Western technologies for its weapons and military programs. Similarly, while “Made in China” has been a blessing for industrial mass production and international trade, China has also lagged behind in certain areas critical for their military programs due to quality inconsistencies and lack of knowhow. Chinese manufacturers are ahead the West in some technologies, but still face criticism for product quality, intellectual property theft, espionage, and unauthorized copying of technologies. Russia has been working on improving their domestic capabilities for decades, but has failed due to historical weaknesses within governance, innovation, and industry. Although both Russia and China have made significant advancements in technology, inadequate current domestic series-production has forced both countries to rely on Western components for several years to come.

    As geopolitical tensions have spiked after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we see an increasingly fractured world with disturbing disputes over sharing and access to energy resources, technology, and raw materials. Sanctioned countries are closing in on weapons trade and negotiations, some African countries are kicking out the West and opening their arms to Chinese infrastructure development or Russian military forces, and even North Korea has entered the theater as Russia is getting more and more desperate for weapons.

    De- or anti-globalization and increased use of sanctions have led to a race for technological supremacy. Those who master technology, will also master weapon or military development. These matters are nation-state priorities on highly strategic level. Access to friendly or unfriendly nations’ knowledge and technology is crucial for development of military and defense platforms, for both naval, army, and air force. Militaries worldwide are competing and racing against each other about the most advanced technology. Adversaries are studying, spying, and gathering intelligence about other nations weapons, equipment, and tactics to enhance their own military capabilities and prepare for future military operations.

    This trend away from technology and knowledge sharing, is hindering our cooperative efforts in vital areas such as health and wealth development in poor countries, green transformation to face climate crisis, pandemics, and other potential and unforeseen global events. Nevertheless, besides sustainability, national security is now likely the most dominant challenge companies and countries must tackle. And it starts with our companies. Awareness must be built, and export control tightened. Only then can proactive managers take the appropriate measures necessary to save critical values not only for the business interest, but also for the security interests.

    Russia depends on microelectronics for their weapons production and military programs which they must obtain illegally through transit countries. China is also restricted from buying the best semiconductors due to a risk of it being used military against the United States and the West. Companies are our first line of defense and must be supported and encouraged to restrain exports of microelectronics, and dual-use products built on this, to a much broader list of potential transit countries. Further, by lowering the list of items that must be export controlled to include more low-tech and commercial items, the West can further empower the use of sanctions and deter these countries military development.

    The Race for Technological Supremacy

    No country in the world is self-sufficient when it comes to technology. Sanctions, restrictive measures, and limited access to high-end technology is nothing new between alliances and rivals. North Korea, likely the most isolated country in the world, still manage to circumvent sanctions and illegally import Western commodities for production of critical systems. Russia, which has been under export control for decades and now massively sanctioned due to both invasions of Ukraine, evades control measures and get hold of Western technology by using both sanctioned and non-sanctioned countries that are pro-Russian, such as Iran, China, Turkey, “stan-countries”1 and even NATO-friendly countries. Iran has supplied hundreds of one-way attack drones to Russia according to the White House2. These drones are made up of Western components that have found their way to Iran through circumvention of the sanctions or illegal and evasive methods. Even China is now limited from getting some of the best semiconductor products due to increased tension with the United States and the West, causing both sides to invest in emerging and disruptive technologies in search of competitive military advantage.

    The Future is Autonomous

    There is little doubt that modern and future warfare will be increasingly robotized. Technology has changed the battlefield and there is an ongoing superpower contest to develop weapons and systems that can operate crewless, remotely, and autonomously. Whether it is aerial drones, unmanned surface vessels (USVs), autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs), or remotely operated underwater vehicles (ROVs) or underwater drones. UAVs could be launched from USVs or AUVs, or AUVs are launched from submarines or larger unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs). Although several of these concepts are not fully ready or tested, those who will master these type of delivery systems will have great advantages in future military warfare. Compared to strategic conventional assets like submarines, frigates, helicopters, fighter jets etc., such systems are less expensive, put less people directly in the line of fire and can be modified or updated significantly faster with different sensors or payloads depending on purpose or target. They could be used for both reconnaissance, intelligence collection, defensive or kinetic offensive purposes. The systems are cheap in comparison to other military delivery systems and weapons, and often more readily available in large numbers as they are increasingly built on commercially available technology. As a result, the importance of innovation, adaption and commingling of civilian and military technology and cooperation have increased.

    Ukraine has developed and used USVs loaded with explosives towards Russian strategic naval assets with significant success. In addition to these uncrewed kamikaze vehicles, Ukraine, as well as other countries, is developing and testing unmanned underwater vehicles3 designed to map or attack strategic naval assets and enemy targets, that are also adaptable to transport cargo either for military or civilian purposes. The advantage of USV delivery systems compared to conventional missiles or aerial weapons is the amount of explosive payloads they can carry compared to a vehicle flown through the air, and how they can strike. Swarms of USVs approaching with high speed from several angles can be difficult to detect, track, and target effectively. Current AUV/UUVs have more limited payloads and ranges, however their covertness travelling under water might substitute for lack of this.

    In war, quantity, production, and technology are bound together, as ability to innovate and adapt, manufacture, resupply and maintain endurance have conventionally and historically been recipes for success. Russia had an enormous amount of weapons when it invaded Ukraine, but on the battlefield, they have demonstrated that they have invested in quantity over quality, as evidenced by scarce navigation control, poor maintenance, and old equipment. By increasing weapon navigation, targets are more easily hit, number of weapons and cost can be reduced, civilian casualties kept to a minimum, and logistics and after supplies minimized.

    The degree of autonomy and precision in autonomous systems and navigation depends on the quality of the inertial navigation systems (INS) and the microelectronic and processing components constituting the INS. Whether it is submarines, drones, or aircrafts, the more advanced the microelectronics and INS, the more reliable, accurate and secure the operation of these vehicles become. If such a system must integrate lower grade components, it will have consequences for navigation accuracy and safety. For crewed systems like airplanes or submarines this can have severe or fatal outcomes. For weapons and delivery systems, lower grade or second-best sensors will deteriorate target precision and lead to greater likelihood of civilian casualties.

    With modern electronics, navigation systems and satellite communications, autonomous or semi-autonomous platforms can navigate over long distances and find targets with much higher precision. Technology will continue to enhance robotics and combat for decades to come, whether it is AI or quantum computers. The future of technology will have numerous fantastic civilian applications that will benefit many sectors and have endless applications. At the same time, these emerging technologies can be applied in highly destructive ways. Therefore, it is essential to secure these technologies for security interests and future forces’ advantages, as there are countries looking to exploit these opportunities fast and uncritically.

    Western countries, including Norway, Denmark, France, Germany, the UK, and the US are world leading within maritime, underwater, acoustic, navigation, communication, sensor, and autonomous technology. It naturally follows that these nations are highly capable withing some areas of emerging technologies. These technologies are not only critical for NATO and Allies’ defense systems, but also technologies which China and Russia and other sanctioned countries rely on for their weapon systems, autonomous vehicles (underwater, sea, land, air), surface vessels, submarines, aviation, or other military capacities needing precision navigation systems. The threats against leading Western companies are increasing. Not only for manufacturers of critical technology, but also for research environments and businesses that have information, know-how, and knowledge with military transfer value. This entails increased responsibility for such companies and organizations as they must be proactive to secure values that are not only critical for the company, but also critical for security and defense interests.

    Deterrence of Military Development: It All Comes Down to Microelectronics

    All modern sensors, systems, platforms, and production are based on advanced microelectronics found in semi-conductors and microchips, ranging from cheap off-the-shelf versions to advanced components produced in only a few countries and regulated by export controls. Consequently, as all weapon systems and modern militaries rely on microelectronics for either manufacturing, navigation, precision or safe operations, limited access to these will have severe consequences in the long term. Sanctions and export restrictions therefore force nations to get the best technology from rivals through different means. So, why are microelectronics so difficult?

    Microelectronics are manufactured on highly advanced fabrication sites and the production process is very complex. The most advanced microchips are patented by the United States and produced in Taiwan. In October 2022, the United States restricted export of the most advanced microchips and manufacturing equipment to China, concerned by China’s potential military use of US technology. The US export restrictions also limited the sale of semiconductor equipment to China produced by foreign companies built on US technology. One of the key technologies that China needs is Dutch extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) machines. China likely has the know-how to manufacture the best microelectronics, however they are unable to build it due to the complicated production process and restricted access to the most advanced chip equipment.

    As for the Russians, Soviet dependence on Western technology for military research and development date back for decades, and the Soviet Union was denied access to the best US/Taiwan microelectronics already after the Second World War. Due to export restrictions, the Soviet Union started lagging behind the West already in the 1970s in advanced electronics, processing technology and precision manufacturing techniques. This was to a large degree a result of the decoupling from international trade with the establishment of Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export Controls (COCOM) in 1947 since COCOM’s main task was to deny the Soviet Union and its allies’ items that could enhance their military capabilities. Therefore, while Western countries befitted from the global markets, collaboration and technological exchange with international partners, the technological isolation made it difficult for the Soviet Union to compete with the West. Instead of compensating for the isolation by developing certain critical technologies like microelectronics themselves, the Soviet Union obtained this from the West through illegal procurement channels4 and sophisticated spying and intelligence operations, rather than spending resources on development and domestic production.

    The Soviet Union and her successor have made several attempts to tighten these technological gaps through various import substitution programs in the last decades, yet none has been very successful. Fear based culture and industrial inefficiencies affected innovation in the Soviet Union. More recently, Russia has managed to produce indigenous technology and sensors for their military capabilities, although rarely on parity with Western analogs when it comes to size, weigh, series production and consistency.

    Even with limited access to the international market, international awareness programs, export controls and control regimes, Western components always finds their way through various channels and backdoors past these control mechanisms, be it to Soviet programs since the 1950, to current North Korean missile programs, or to Iranian produced drones used by Russia against Ukraine.

    Why Arctic Must Not be Forgotten

    As we watch the Russian Army struggle with weapons production, with precision targeting and significant destruction of equipment, we must not forget that their Navy and naval assets are likely more or less intact. These include submarines, surface vessels and other underwater capacities. As per December 2023, there are several naval surface assets and one submarine known to have been destroyed or made inoperable by Ukrainian forces, but this is currently only in the Black Sea.

    The Northern Sea Route, the Arctic and Svalbard are highly prioritized for Russian long term strategic goals. The Svalbard archipelago is strategically important not only due to its location, but also for its “economic, scientific, political, and security implications” for countries in North, the US, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) alliance5. Russia’s military activity in the Arctic is “necessary for reliable control over the region and protection of interests there. […] and part of the economic strategy6”. Russia is developing high speed nuclear-powered, deterrent, and potentially fatal underwater capabilities, such as the underwater nuclear weapon “Poseidon”. In addition, Russia has for decades developed their secretive deep-water GUGI (Russia’s Main Directorate of Deep-Sea Research) capabilities, consisting of manned and unmanned underwater assets for underwater sabotage operations like the destruction of underwater infrastructure, such as the cutting of transatlantic cables and possibly also for other underwater systems related to energy or power.

    All these systems rely on precise acoustic navigation, mapping, positioning, and communication technology, which in turn relies on high quality inertial navigation systems and microelectronics. Despite having a strong legacy within underwater technology and research and submarine design, most of the Russian naval fleet including submarines, academic and hydrographic research vessels, deep-sea submersibles, and autonomous systems and weapons, have all been constructed with and are dependent on Western microelectronics, sensors, and components to some degree. It is not likely that Russia and China are on parity with leading Western manufacturers within these types of technologies.

    The result of this technology lag is that Russia is unlikely to get sufficient items of the best quality versions needed for their more strategic assets. Whereas navigation and communication with drones and uncrewed assets is relatively easy on and near land such as in Ukraine, this is not the same in the North and the Arctic. Here, navigation is much more challenging due to the latitude and vast areas of open ocean. Naval delivery systems rely on precision navigation systems to reach their targets, the same yields other surface vessels and or underwater vehicles that need reliable underwater maps or position updates. Due to the difference in quality, as well as compatibility, hardcoding licenses etc., the vast majority of these systems cannot be replaced by Chinese components. Well-developed export control for dual-use and military technology was implemented long before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, but businesses need further guidance and support to continue successful export control as the complexity of sanctions increases.

    One area where underwater capabilities come to fruition is in operations in international waters. Such operations may initially appear to be accidents that may lead to attribution, and make warfare appear like a game between nation-states. The use of these tools by bad faith actors and adversarial nations must not underestimated. If the Nordic pipelines supplying gas to Europe were to suffer similar damage as Nord Stream, the result would be devastating, especially for the UK and Germany. Due to its coverage, the inaccessible nature of underwater infrastructure means that it can never be fully monitored and secured. But by enforcing stricter export control routines, the risk of critical components circumventing sanctions can be limited, and thereby hinder sanctioned states from developing naval equipment and completing their naval platforms, as well mapping and gathering intelligence of critical infrastructure or underwater topography for military planning. Such components include most acoustic technology like sonars and echo sounders, oceanographic sensors, underwater positioning- and communication systems, ROVs, AUVs, INS and microelectromechanical systems (MEMS).

    If the West can continually develop, expand, and tighten the sanctions regime, thereby catching potential loopholes in the regulations, the effects of the sanctions can be significantly strengthened. In so doing, the sanctions can be highly effective against the readiness and development of the Russian Navy. The effect of sanctions is on display on the battlefields of Ukraine. The Russian Army is struggling with weapons precision, likely in part due to lack of access to guidance systems. Russian airlines are struggling with operations and safety as sanctions have limited access to critical and urgently needed equipment. With an effective sanction’s regime, the Northern Fleet and Russian Navy will sustain setbacks, modification and repair issues, and significant safety and navigation issues. The same also applies for the other Russian Navy’s fleets, the Baltic, Black Sea, the Pacific and the Caspian Flotilla fleet.

    On September 15th 2023, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu proclaimed that the Russian Navy would receive 12 vessels by the end of 2023. Shoigu also bragged about the Ministry’s ongoing programs for robotic systems, unmanned underwater vehicles, and multipurpose nuclear submarines. According to the Russian sources, Shoigu has also ordered the use “maximum production capacities to complete the repairs and modernization of submarines”. The only way for Russia to maintain and operate her naval assets at maximum capability, is by procuring Western technology, either covertly or illegally. Obtaining these technologies amidst heavy sanctions is highly resource intensive, and therefore the requirements can never be fully met. Delivery and replenishment of critical items will be too slow, too late, too little, and too few. Even if Russia manages to procure and circumvent sanctions, the likelihood that all the components are of high enough quality is low. It is even less likely that the components are successfully assembled and integrated into vital systems, erring in such procedures can have fatal results.

    Russia is not alone in pursuing scientific and strategic interests in Arctic involving access to potential resources, shipping opportunities, and scientific research. China also has stated interests which they are aggressively pursuing in the region. The magnitude and scope of Chinese-Russian cooperation is not truly known, but it is very likely that both countries are mutually sharing information and technology benefiting the other nation’s military programs through intelligence gathering, underwater mapping, satellite, and picture intelligence, or through transfer of dual-use equipment or knowledge. Given the current geopolitical climate, private companies are therefore forced to evaluate exports, acquisitions, and research risk with the Chinese-Russian comradeship in mind. As long as China is not sanctioned by EU, they can more freely procure the technology they need. But as long as China needs certain goods and technologies themselves, it is likely that they will not prioritize circumvention of export control regulations due to risk of secondary sanctions from the West.

    The Sanctions are Working – Ever Complicating Export Control

    Despite the significant improvement of national and multi-lateral export control organs, adversaries will always find a way to procure equipment covertly or illegally. Evasion methods include license falsification and false end-user documentation, wrong customs declarations, dummy firms, shell companies and transit countries, use of foreign agents, freight companies and brokers, and undesirable knowledge transfer through bi- and multilateral research and science exchange programs. The list goes on.

    Russia’s missile and shell production was recently reported by The New York Times 7to exceed pre-war levels, while NATO is struggling with their own ammunition stock and production. “In cases where Russia needs millions of a component, export controls can grind production to a halt. But the chips needed to make a couple of hundred cruise missiles would fit into a few backpacks, which makes evading sanctions relatively simple”, Mr. Alperovitch said in the same article. This is only possible by routing trade through transit countries and then to Russia.

    There are quite a few countries and entities who willingly act as transit countries or middlemen for Russia. When Russian government needs critical items, the easiest way by far is through third countries as export control is often weaker than non-sanctioned or NATO-friendly countries. As a lot of the goods are not dual-use listed/ITAR regulated 8and are often considered “just commercial shelf goods and not that risky” to sell, they become easier to transport through these countries. Sanctioned countries falsify end-user statements to procure technology for military end-users, which makes export control extremely challenging. The likelihood of getting caught has been low and equally the risk of severe consequences. But there are increasing examples of entities being arrested and charged for illicit procurement to Russia and other sanctioned countries.

    There are ample examples that demonstrate willingness and ability to circumvent sanctions. One of these is that of the two Singaporeans who faced sentencing and fines for having falsified an end-user statement 9in 2018 to procure a dual-use sonar system from Norway for the sanctioned Myanmar Navy. In an example from August 2023, the US Commerce Department arrested and charged a Russian-German national for export control violations, by taking part in an illicit Russian procurement network procuring US made microelectronics10 by sending them via Cyprus, Latvia or Tajikistan11.

    China is not subject to sanctions as Russia, although there are unilateral sanctions from e.g. US on certain items, and can therefore more legitimately import dual-use goods and critical items. However, the attitude towards China is changing as their partnership with Russia, spanning trade, military and possibly also intelligence sharing, is growing. The West is therefore slowly reviewing export policies and the way they perceive China as a business partner and strategic partner. While China has made significant progress in developing her own sensors, autonomy systems, and other emerging technologies, there are still areas where they will rely on Western suppliers for the foreseeable future. Especially as pertains to microelectronics, where they just like Russia, also need high precision underwater, autonomy, navigation, and communication technology. China can play the long game and use other methods to achieve their goals. These may include foreign investments, company acquisitions, knowledge acquisition through research programs or bilateral exchange programs. China will approach research communities developing relevant technologies and any other field that might be transferable for Chinese military research and technology.

    Companies Unaware of Their Dual-use Values

    Dual-use items are restricted through multilateral export control regimes such as the Wassenaar Arrangement, Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) or International Trade and Arms Regulations (ITAR). However, some more low-tech consumer or industrial products could fall outside specifications and still be critical items and wanted for military use. These are often referred to as non-ITAR, No License Required (NRL), EAR9912, not classified or non-listed. These items might not have any export control classification number and are treated as not subject to export control. Many companies lack export compliance competency and will too quickly assess low tech items as non dual-use or not classified. It is also likely that many companies fail to look for export restrictions as this can be complicated and tedious.

    Low-tech and non-listed items could be subject to export control if items are exported to: a) heavily sanctioned destinations, b) there is reason to believe an item is intended for certain sensitive end-uses like weapons or military programs, or c) there is a high risk that the item could be re-sold via a transit country to a sanctioned end-country.

    There’s no list or definition that determines if an item requires export license if it is originally not listed or classified as dual-use. It is an analytical process that requires training and interpretation of the regulations, and knowledge about its real world uses. Such technology could be due to its specific performance characteristics, qualities, or designed-end use. Microelectronics and semiconductors are great examples of this. These technologies are often off-the-shelf and far off classifications and specifications. However, this is technology that Russia does not domestically produce at satisfactory quality and needs for weapon production and industrial operations. These items should therefore be treated under export control despite being low grade and not “dangerous” as they have military applications. Therefore, a multi-disciplinary effort consisting of different subject matter experts is usually required within compliance and export control teams.

    Regardless of classification, any product that can be used in military applications should therefore be considered dual-use no matter the specifications, and treated similar to export of classified and listed items. Export control is complex and requires ongoing vigilance, intelligence sharing, and coordination among companies and countries to effectively counter these illicit activities.

    There are several companies that produce components, that are critical for nation state military programs, be they non-ITAR or off-the-shelf. However, there is a wide disparity between organizations in regard to how informed they are about applicability of their products. Businesses cannot wait to get incorporated under laws governing security or even for security clearance to receive classified information to get adequate decision support. Only a very few organizations can actually interpret and assess the relevance of the annual threat and risk assessments published by their national security and intelligence services.

    The threat landscape is more complex than ever. Due to increased digitalization and travel restrictions because of sanctions, it is likely that intelligence increasingly will be collected remotely through cyber, open sources, scraped internet data and other big data compilations. Procurements and investment will be done through non-sanctioned third parties, transit countries, complicated supply chains and hidden ownerships. The result of this complexity is that it is not sufficient for companies to limit themselves to the bare minimum of due diligence in countering unwanted knowledge transfer, unintended violations of sanctions, or safeguarding their own companies against insider threats. Only organizations that stay updated on geopolitics, open-source investigations, and evolving sanctions, will be able to build a dynamic compliance environment that is resilient and prepared for the constantly changing threat landscape. Businesses must receive threat assessments that are current and company specific. Otherwise, businesses will not fully comprehend how their research and knowledge, services or technology can have dual-use value. This leaves companies vulnerable to make poor assessments and business strategies, and potentially undermining national security policy. The screening of end-users is complex procedure that requires updated awareness about adversaries, modus operandi, technology gaps, and geopolitics. The absolute authority for dual-use and export control is the national government. However, responsible agencies suffer from a lack of personnel and an overwhelming workload, therefore businesses must understand that the responsibility also rests on them. Most companies, at least small and medium sized businesses, are unlikely to have the resources to build this competence inhouse. When that is the case, companies must leverage non-governmental and private expertise from people with a defense and intelligence background, civil-military cooperation can be bridged, and awareness, understanding and results obtained faster.

    Lack of companies taking responsibility, management deprioritizing security investments and a culture of acting reactively and not proactively are main causes for why items slip through export control and sanctions screening. Profit does very often dominate compliance considerations when the consequences are not entirely understood, or because the penalties are so low it is worth the risk. Currently it does not have huge consequences for a company to turn its blind eye to when exporting to end-users in third countries, brokers or middlemen procuring on behalf of Russian end-users. Because mostly they are following written laws, regulations and procedures. However, sanction non-compliance can be punishable even if the responsible screening party thought they were acting according to regulations. They can be found guilty if a court concludes that it was not reasonable or that the screening and end-user verification were not adequately conducted. This is exactly what is sought targeted in the last European Union’s 11th sanction package – to prevent circumventions via third countries and make it punishable to assist in such procurements.

    Companies are our First and Last Line of Defense

    We must not underestimate the power of sanctions. But, as US Assistant Attorney General for National Security Matthew G. Olsen, said in March 2023, when talking about the collective effort to enforce export sanctions and export control laws:

    “Companies are our first line of defense”

    We need to start with the companies, they must understand their responsibilities, their values and how to navigate the threats and fall pits out there. Enforcing stricter sanctions and export control can never eliminate all risk of diversion. Yet if we manage to build knowledge, increase awareness, and support organizations with dual-use values that other state-nations seek for their military programs, this can accelerate the power of the sanctions and enhance our own defense and military capabilities instead. Whether it is information, knowledge and cutting-edge science and R&D, maps and information about critical infrastructure, as well as technology production and manufacturing know-how.

    The geopolitical situation mirrors a pressing need for even more enhanced cooperation among allied nations. New public-private and civilian-military partnerships must be made to advance and secure domestic and allies dual-use industry. Fortunately, like NATO’s Defence Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic (DIANA), NATO Innovation Fund (NIF) and several other private initiatives, there is a positive surge of innovation programs around the world with purpose to accelerate, support and fund development and adaption of dual-use technologies and commercial technology that can have military or defensive purposes.

    If the West is to retain its technological edge on critical technologies and R&D, we must secure it or risk it falling into the hands of countries of concern. We need to support and secure businesses that develop important design and production know-how instead of just regulating the final products. Risk-reducing measures, knowledge of export control, safety culture and threat understanding must be implemented at the source of production, and not just at the national borders in customs.

    The role of technology is shaping geopolitics, and never before have business security, trade and strategies, been more intertwined with defense and security interests. And vice versa. Never have defense and security programs been more dependent on private companies taking responsibility and understanding how crucial securing critical technology and knowledge is. Whether it is reputation or security interests that are the biggest risk, it should not pay to put financial interests first.

    Autocratic regimes are not sleeping – we must react. They are studying the West’s cutting edge R&D and technologies, and planning how to use this for future advantages and conflict. As rapid technology development usually benefits autocracies who more rapidly take advantage of new technologies for their militaries, democracies spearheaded by US and NATO need to respond urgently to secure critical knowledge and technology for allies and friendly countries.

    By combining awareness, continuously enhance export control and not treat compliance as routine, be proactive and stay updated on advisory and recommendations, businesses will be better equipped to make the right decisions. Through understanding of how potential risks and consequences of negligence can affect more than business crown jewels, organizations are likely to prioritize and take proactive measures to safeguard values critical for both companies, and national and allied security interests.

    When companies developing critical technology that adversaries need and rely on, understands the real power of export control and strict enforcement of sanctions regimes, their countries, with their national and allied forces, have tremendous power.

  • TikTok and the 2023 Norwegian Local Election

    How did Norwegian first-time voters use TikTok as an information source?

    Ragnhild Tvergrov Skare

    This is a presentation of the main findings in UTSYN’s new report on TikTok’s role among Norwegian first-time voters during the 2023 election. The report can be read here: TikTok and the 2023 Norwegian Local Election.

    In September 2023, local elections were held in Norway. Tens of thousands of 18 and 19-year-old voters expressed their first political stances at Norwegian polling stations. In December 2022, the Security Minister of the United Kingdom, Tom Tugendhat, warned that TikTok has significant potential to influence British first-time voters in the next election (Martin, 2022). In Norway, 40 per cent of 16-19-year-olds claim to use TikTok to stay updated on the news (Statistisk sentralbyrå, 2023).

    How does TikTok function as a channel for information on political issues in Norway? How did first-time voters use the platform to gather information during the election? What did TikTok look like during the election campaign? What impact could this have had on young voters?

    Main findings

    UTSYN bases this report on observations made on the platform throughout the summer and fall of 2023, international research on how TikTok influences young users, and qualitative interviews with 21 Norwegian first-time voters after the election. The report provides an overview of some of the key features of young people’s use of TikTok as an information source for political content. It is not conclusive but rather points to blind spots and areas that require further research.

    The findings indicates that TikTok is not primarily used as a serious news source among young people. Unless the user has a specific interest in politics and news, the content that dominates is often related to the user’s interests. This can be things like skincare, motorsports, or celebrity news. However, there is a significant exception. When major national or international events occur, like the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the conflict between Israel and Palestine, TikTok is flooded with content about the events. In these cases, TikTok can provide valuable information from “the ground” but is also filled with misinformation and misleading narratives.

    During the election, most first-time voters encountered political content. The majority mentioned that they mainly came across content from the right side of the Norwegian political spectrum. This aligns with surveys conducted by the major Norwegian newspaper VG (Verdens gang), which showed that the political right had five times as many views as the left on TikTok during the election period (Vik & Hvitmyhr, 2023). Although some interviewees explicitly claim to be influenced by TikTok, much suggests that the app was not the sole or most important source of information for young voters. Family, friends, traditional media, and online political party quizzes were often mentioned as more significant for young voters.

    One last important observation is that the 2023 election was not particularly suitable for a TikTok election campaign. The content on the app is by nature more nationally and internationally oriented and thus more suited for national elections. The main election tag: #Valg2021 has twice as many views as #Valg2023, even though the app has more daily users in 2023 than in 2021. This suggests that the potential for TikTok to influence the 2025 Parliamentary election is greater than it was in 2023.

    Recommendations for Addressing TikTok’s Impact on Political Awareness and Information Dissemination:

    1. Increased Media Presence on TikTok During Elections: Encourage established media houses like VG, Dagbladet, TV2, and NRK to increase the amount content presenting political party viewpoints on TikTok during elections. Enhance information diversity and counter content from unverified users
    2. Increase Funding for Relevant Organizations: Boost support for organizations working preventively to strengthen resilience against disinformation, especially those providing resources for schools. Recommended organizations: Tenk.faktisk.no, the educational arm of Faktisk.no, or Medietilsynet.
    3. Raise Awareness and Develop Strategies for TikTok in Crises: Recognize TikTok’s role in disseminating information for young users during crises and make strategies to handle misinformation. NRK, as a trusted source, should re-establish NRK Supernytt’s TikTok account to reach the younger audience effectively. Establish public-private collaborations with entities monitoring social media trends to alert the media houses when events are trending and counter misinformation.
    4. Advocate for International Social Media Regulation: Advocate for international regulation of social media platforms, particularly focusing on preventing the creation of echo chambers and the massive spread of misinformation during crises. Norway could push for international action through international forums like the United Nations.
    5. Recommendations for Further Research: Conduct long-term research on TikTok’s impact on Norwegian society, especially focusing on its role in shaping youth perspectives leading towards the 2025 election. Explore TikTok’s potential as a platform for radicalization, considering its ability to create content-specific echo chambers and potential religious radicalization.
  • Director Hedda Langemyr selected for prestigious program

    Hedda Langemyr, Director of UTSYN – Center for Security and Resilience, has been selected to participate in the prestigious International Visitor Leadership Program organized by the U.S. State Department.

    Participants in the program are nominated and chosen by staff at U.S. embassies around the world. Each year, nearly 5000 international delegates take part in this exclusive program. Previous participants include over 500 current and former heads of state or government.

    The program Hedda will be attending focuses on U.S. – European security relations. In the US, Hedda will delve into Arctic security, hybrid threats, warfare in the information domain, cybersecurity, and energy security. Alongside the rest of the European delegation, she will participate in a series of meetings with representatives from various sectors at different levels within the U.S. security cooperation.

    “With war in Europe and significant changes in the European security landscape, the EU becoming a more relevant security actor and major powers maintaining a persistent focus on security in the Arctic, we will have much to discuss,” says Hedda.

    The story has been mentioned in the Norwegian outlets Forsvarets Forum and Altinget.

  • How Service Can Help Save America

    Last’s week election and its aftermath are confirming the breadth and depth of divisiveness in our not-so-United States, to the peril of the great experiment in self-governance the nation’s founders laid out nearly a quarter-millennium ago, and its current place in the pantheon of world powers. Over half the country is hoping a change in political leadership will help break the logjam, but if politics is so much the problem, how can it really be the solution? There must be a better way.

    By: Christopher Holshek

    Besides, aren’t we placing too much power into the hands of one person, like the man on the white horse, to save us from ourselves? That smacks more authoritarian than democratic. As Time columnist David French cautioned, “Americans should not see their individual liberty or the autonomy of their churches and communities as so dependent on the identity of the President.”

    But there were other things from last week’s election-count drama our sensationalist media mentioned in passing. One was how 25 more million Americans may have woken up to the realization that citizenship is not just residence, by exercising their foremost civic responsibility. “In an atmosphere of increasing negative polarization and geographic separation,” French went on, “we can no longer take our nation for granted. We must intentionally care for the state of our union.”

    Another was less obvious — how tens of thousands of poll workers in thousands of communities across the fourth largest and third most populous country in the world, almost all of them volunteers, from all walks of life, Republican and Democrat inspectors side-by-side, tirelessly took tremendous care to ensure as accurate and complete a count of that record-breaking number of votes, in the midst of all this division and misinformation, in the middle of the greatest pandemic crisis in a century, and amongst the complexity of the permutations of procedural regulations in 50 separate states, a few territories, and overseas ballots to boot.

    This was nothing short of miraculous. And yet this quiet act of citizen service performed at every election was an affirmation of the vitality of our democracy. As a 30-year Army veteran, writing these words on Veterans Day: Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your service in ensuring a country worth my own service and sacrifice.

    It’s not just the election that may be showing us the way forward in an annus horribilis whose end is not yet in sight. When fear of the pandemic gripped us in the spring, love also broke out for the work of health care professionals. They and a panoply of “essential workers” to include postal and delivery workers, and even shelf-stockers and cashiers began to permeate an emerging national narrative already inhabited by the military, the police, firefighters and other first-responders. Then there were all those, formally and informally, who helped battle the worst wildfires in the West and the impacts of so many named hurricanes and storms to the east and south that we had to adopt the Greek alphabet.

    “Thank you for your service” is becoming a more an acknowledgement of the inclusive responsibility of all than the exclusive burden of few — and that is good news. The value of service is democratizing as our embittered and divided society is reaching almost irreconcilable dysfunction.

    The National Commission on Military, National, and Public Service defines service as “a personal commitment of time, energy, and talent to a mission that contributes to the public good by protection the Nation and its citizens, strengthening communities, or promoting the general social welfare.”

    A relatively strong sense of service and volunteerism is among America’s greatest national strengths, going as far back as it contentious and divisive political culture. In its final report, issued this past March, the Commission noted: “From the earliest days of the Republic, service has been a central part of what it means to be an American — and it remains so today. Civic engagement and service are critical to the health and well-being of the Nation; by bringing people together to tackle common problems, service makes communities stronger and strengthens American democracy.”

    For some time since 9/11, there’s been increasing talk of national and community service in one form or another. Popular support for it is overwhelming. Demand for service opportunities has been outstripping supply. Millennials in particular are becoming more service-oriented as well as civic-minded. Among the many virtues they and others are discovering is that service to others, which doesn’t require a uniform, brings people together. In a hyper-divided nation, this is more than good news.

    In addition to the Commission is the Serve America Act as well as the late Senator John McCain’s bill to create a 21st Century Civilian Conservation Service Corps to engage young Americans and veterans in restoring national parks and other public lands. Meanwhile, former presidential couple Barack and Michelle Obama are encouraging community service through the Obama Foundation. More and more high schools and colleges include community service as a graduation requirement, reducing the stigma of community service as a form of punishment for misdemeanors.

    Building from our well-developed infrastructure like AmeriCorps, the Peace Corps, and myriad public and private programs, retired General Stanley McChrystal and Service Year Alliance chair argued, “could unleash the energy of our young people to tutor and mentor students in low-performing schools; support the elderly so they age with dignity; help communities respond to disasters; assist veterans reintegrating into their hometowns; and perform a thousand different tasks of value to our country.”

    Moreover, he exhorted, service learning ”teaches young Americans the habits of citizenship, and the power of working in teams to build trust is one of the most powerful ways this generation can help restore political and civic responsibility — and in the process help to heal a wounded nation.”

    As my own project, The National Service Ride, emphasizes at school seminars, service-powered citizenship provides a sense of personal and collective identity not found in smart phones or social media — real, human connectivity in an increasingly alienating, narcissistic, and atomizing society. Identity being values in action, it helps develop the internal moral GPS needed to navigate a complex, dynamically interconnected, and information overloaded world. It helps people feel more empowered and hopeful, resistant to the darker narratives of exclusion and division by replacing enmity with empathy. It could even help restore faith in government by giving people something to talk about other than politics, creating space for less toxic civil dialogue.

    A narrative of service to others fosters a collaborative mindset, establishing real common ground for less toxic and polarized civil dialogue on matters inexplicable in 280 characters. Besides revitalizing citizenship along the lines of thinking globally and acting locally, a more universal sense of service and sacrifice remedies an unwholesome civil-military relationship. Rather than slogans and bumper stickers, the best way to honor those who put their lives on the line for others is to walk and not just talk. Patriotism, after all, is something you do more than something you feel or say.

    USA Today opinion contributor Jonathan Zimmerman is right to point out that our schools can play a big part in helping us move past partisan division, by helping our kids be better citizens and not just employees. On a more practical side, service learning is where real education begins. Citizenship starting with civic action can also enfranchise disconnected youth and marginalized groups, improving social cohesion and resilience and even reducing crime.

    Community service also helps them obtain vital 21st century economic qualifications like team-playing, team-building, and team-leading, as well as interpersonal and problem-solving skills, and how to build the personal and professional networks from which most people now find vocations.

    And it can lower the aggregate cost of public service delivery. The implications for a better qualified and more competitive work force, a revitalized and more stable middle class, more shared prosperity, and general societal resilience are enormous. It would no doubt help the U.S. become more competitive in an increasingly fierce global marketplace.

    People need not wait for the government to come up with something, nor go very far, for there are myriad ways to become citizens as responsible to neighbors as to nation. While more hands, hearts, and minds are needed for public and national service, most Americans can best serve their country by serving their community. It is, after all, its communities — not its capital — that makes the United States the country it is. Besides, the ground-up dynamics of building peace and security that our aid specialists see working over there are the same that work over here — whether with community policing, gender equality, race and religious relations, and so on.

    The blessings of liberty ultimately come through shared sense of community fostered from and not despite our diversity. This country’s founders were aware of this, going out of their way to make sure America works better from below than from above. And like charity, citizenship begins on the block.

    Americans have more power to change things than they think. The sooner enough of us act upon the common-sense notion that we do better for ourselves when we do better for each other, our country will again move forward together in meaningful way. As I say in my project video: “Washington’s not going fix America; America is going to fix America.”

     

    This blog post was first published at Medium, November 11 2020.

    Christopher Holshek, Colonel, U.S. Army (Ret.), is founder of the National Service Ride project and author of Travels with Harley — Journeys in Search of Personal and National Identity. He is also a senior civil-military advisor to the NATO ResilientCivilians project.

     

  • Expanding Multi-Domain Operations to Win Moral Competition

    The Army should manage its capabilities for competition in the moral dimension with the same rigor that it does for capabilities in the material dimension to succeed in conflict.

    By: Colonel Christopher Holshek, U.S. Army, Retired

    In war, moral factors account for three quarters of the whole; relative material strength accounts for only one quarter.
    –Napoleon Bonaparte

    To win in the competition continuum, unified land operations call for dominance in both the moral and the material dimensions. The U.S. Army has adopted Multi-Domain Operations (MDO) to drive change “to ensure that the intellectual precedes the physical in the development of the future force, enabling the United States to win in competition and conflict in the future.”1 At the same time, the Army must address its cognitive incapacity for MDO support of Joint All-Domain Operations (JADO) to “prevail in competition…penetrate and dis-integrate enemy anti-access and area denial (A2/AD) systems and exploit the resultant freedom of maneuver to achieve strategic objectives (win), and force a return to competition on favorable terms.”2 It must do this to stay on the winning side of a constant, multi-dimensional power struggle – power being the demonstrated capacity, ability or will to change or influence behavior or the course of events.

    MDO describes the operational continuum as continuous competition vice the binary notion of conflict as war or peace. The Army needs “to actively compete left of conflict in order to enable winning in conflict” and “to expand the battlefield” beyond physical domains to cognitive capacities, developing full-spectrum capabilities to engage and influence the strategic and operating environment in decisive ways.3 These capabilities are as essential to war-winning as combat forces and do not exist merely to set conditions for victory in conflict or return to competition. The Army’s ability to influence populations and leaders through an effective narrative, combined with unified actions and informational power, are critical to holistic MDO.

    Expanding from the Material to the Moral

    The premier challenge in this expansion is conceptual. In this era of strategic competition, contested norms and persistent disorder, there is a requirement for “the seamless integration of multiple elements of national power – diplomacy, information, economics, finance, intelligence, law enforcement, and military.”4 This is regardless of when or where in the competition continuum, and it is not a new idea. Competition is “older than warfare itself; it is the original politics.”5 War is its extension, entailing a violent contest of wills, and is fundamentally political, human and psychological.

    Conflicts since 9/11 have shown clearly that “to wage war effectively, civilian and military leaders must operate as successfully on political battlegrounds as they do on the physical,” and that “integrating efforts across those battlegrounds is essential to success in war.”6 They also revealed that “military power alone is insufficient to achieve sustainable political objectives, and there are limited means to achieve integration across the instruments of national power.”7 This requires expansion beyond the physical domains that form almost all of MDO to concepts that are better aligned with interorganizational activities prescribed in the Stabilization Assistance Review and DoD Directive 3000.05, Stabilization.8

    The Information Environment

    The information element of power is a paramount operational and strategic consideration. In modern war and competition, “the information domain determines winners and losers and the best weapons do not fire bullets.”9 The Joint Concept of Operations in the Information Environment (JCOIE) concedes that the U.S. military has “failed to maximize the potential of informational power.”10 It also states the core military problem of JADO: “How will the Joint force integrate physical and informational power to change or maintain the perceptions, attitudes, and other elements that drive desired behaviors of relevant actors in an increasingly pervasive and connected information environment to produce enduring strategic outcomes?” In this environment, civil and cognitive reconnaissance are essential, and synthesizing the civil and information components with military considerations is key in joint intelligence preparation of the operational environment.

    Winning in the Information Environment

    In order to win in the information environment, the joint force must have “the ability to understand the perceptions, attitudes, and other elements that drive behaviors that affect joint force objectives; the ability to characterize, assess, synthesize and understand trends of relevant actor activities and their impacts on the information environment throughout cooperation, competition and conflict; the ability to execute integrated physical and informational activities designed to achieve psychological effects; and, the ability to assess and modify informational power with the same level of competency as physical power.”11 Information-related capabilities to shape and influence the human geography can give the Army decisive advantage.

    Operationalizing integrated physical and informational power requires institutionalizing it. Informationally-driven MDO and JADO are inherently strategic. Strategy “seeks to influence and shape the future environment as opposed to merely reacting to it.”12 To institute a “competitive mindset,” the National Defense Strategy emphasizes greater strategic thinking, even at lower levels of military leadership, to win modern wars. Understanding complex and dynamic strategic conditions is critical to successful competition. An update to the Officer Professional Military Education Policy lists strategic thinking and communication first among joint learning activities.13 This, however, is only the first step in solving a more systemic problem.

    Beyond Information to Influence

    To expand MDO from the physical to the psychological, the Army’s view of informational power must go beyond conventional Information Operations (IO) messaging of selected target audiences. It must defeat more sophisticated use of information in support of strategic aims. As noted strategic thinker Brigadier General Huba Was de Czege, USA, Ret., observes:

    Our opponents mean to fracture our alliances, partnerships, and resolve. They intend to influence our home and Allied publics. They mean to create ambiguity, slow our recognition of danger, confuse our policy decisions, and block or misdirect our reactions. This would be a clearer statement of the problems we must address: Just how does the Army contribute to this political, military, and economic realm of international affairs?14

    Tactical actions have direct political consequences.15 Soldiers compete on complex human terrain, often overmatched by adversaries with a superior understanding of that terrain, cultural interior lines and greater leeway to manipulate local dynamics in order to achieve holistic effects.

    Despite the allure of technology, the Army remains the premier force for human interaction. “Cyberwar’s real power in modern warfare is influence, not sabotage. Using the internet to change people’s minds is more powerful than blowing up a server.”16 The United States is considering expansion of Army Cyber Command to an information warfare (IW) command that will include IO and IW, as well as cyber and electronic warfare.17 But is that enough?

    As with “competition,” the Army lacks a clear definition of integrated influence operations. RAND, however, does provide a definition: “[Integrated influence operations means] the coordinated, integrated, and synchronized application of national diplomatic, informational, military, economic, and other capabilities in peacetime, crisis, conflict, and post-conflict to foster attitudes, behaviors, or decisions by foreign target audiences that further U.S. interests and objectives.”18 The U.S. Army should work with the Joint Staff to get this approved as a DoD definition.

    Regarding the narrative, strategist Dr. Ajit Maan explains it as “the telling of a story in a certain way for a certain purpose. The way is identification. The purpose is influence. Through narrative, we construct our personal and cultural identities. Ideas and beliefs result from those identities, and actions follow.” Narrative warfare is thus a strategic struggle over the meaning of information, less about facts or truth and more about the beliefs that they may underwrite. Narrative concepts of strategy or warfare, as cognitive visualization tools (versus physical operations measures and evaluations) are not integral to the current concept of MDO.19

    Getting Back to Engagement

    The Army may already have an integrative, unifying concept of applied informational power in the warfighting functional concept it introduced in 2014.20 MDO describes engagement as “the combination of physical, informational, and psychological actions taken to influence actors’ decisionmaking.” Because war is fundamentally and primarily a human endeavor, the 2018 MDO Concept stresses that the joint force “must address the cognitive aspects of political, human, social, and cultural interactions to achieve operational and national objectives.”21 Inherently offensive, engagement expands the competitive space through conflict and return to competition, including gray-zone unconventional or irregular warfare. As a core competency, commanders and statesmen should “offer competitors and adversaries an outstretched hand, open to opportunities for cooperation but from a position of strength and based on our national interests.”22

    Engagement builds partner institutional and governance capacities and joint, interorganizational and multinational (JIM) networks in order to see, understand, shape and influence the operating environment. Engagement grows strategic capital to draw from in response to unanticipated non-linear attacks and hybrid warfare. The U.S. Army should use engagement not just to mitigate adversary influence operations, but to regain the initiative, to lift the fog of competition and to accelerate response decision cycles to win without decisively committing combat forces, as Sun Tzu would have it.

    “We have to continually be countering information warfare and unconventional warfare,” Deputy Commanding General of Army Futures Command Lieutenant General Eric Wesley urged. “That requires day-to-day coordination among the U.S. military, U.S. civilian agencies and allies [through] operational headquarters that are conducting competition every single day in an aggressive and rapid manner.” Despite legal and bureaucratic hurdles, the Army cannot ignore this challenge. “This can’t be done agency-by-agency or even country-by-country,” he added. “One of the reasons we struggle with it is we see it as an afterthought. We do it episodically, anecdotally.”23

    More than strategic economy-of-force, comprehensive, continuous and consistent engagement is a scaled-up version of General Stanley McChrystal’s “collaborative warfare.”24 Joint Publication 3-08, Interorganizational Cooperation, describes collaboration as “a process where organizations work together to attain common goals by sharing knowledge, learning, and building consensus.”25 As an employment of a strategic narrative of inclusion, a collaborative warfare approach to engagement enables the United States and its partners to stay ahead of the power curve, seize strategic initiative and shape the competitive space, rather than being shaped by it.

    The current MDO Concept adds that engagement enables the joint force to “outmaneuver an adversary cognitively as well as physically and virtually to deter, counter, and deny the escalation of violence in competition, and defeat the enemy if armed conflict cannot be avoided.” As such, engagement forces are essentially maneuver forces, beneficial both for decisive strategic action and for setting operational conditions in the cognitive spaces that make up expanded MDO and competition.

    To enable the strategic benefits of engagement, combatant and service component commanders and their unified action partners must “build campaign plans that integrate, converge, and leverage national elements of latent, indirect, and direct powers” in the highly complex and dynamic environments of especially urban areas of competition and A2/AD. Such politico-military decisionmaking support requires integrated civil-military planning teams at theater and joint force commands. They serve as a competition mechanism for civil-military convergence and for interorganizational stabilization; they also consolidate military and security gains into desired political and civil outcomes. Commanders and interorganizational partners require a full range of integrated moral and material options for executing simultaneous and sequential operations across all domains. If these capabilities are not optimized at the institutional level, they will most assuredly not be optimized at the execution level.

    Organizational Challenges

    To expand MDO from the material to the moral, the JCOIE says that the joint force must have “the ability to organize, train, equip, and maintain organizations that deliberately leverage information and the informational aspects of military activities.” It must also be able to integrate actions, organizationally and operationally. The Army provides most of these capabilities in the following arenas: Civil Affairs (CA); Psychological Operations (PSYOP) and IO/IW; Foreign Area Officers; and Public Affairs. It also has broad access to unified action partners to bring additional (and often more appropriate and effective) capabilities to bear. For competition, the Army maintains numerous security cooperation activities – beyond its overwhelming focus on train-and-equip and including International Military Education and Training – with the goal of establishing “rapport between the U.S. military and the country’s military to build alliances for the future.”26

    Many of these programs leverage reserve forces capacities. The National Guard’s State Partnership Program, a highly-effective, low-cost training and institution-building program, builds relationships that can generate strategic and operational capital. Similarly, the U.S. Military Observer Group, a joint program run by the Army, provides United Nations field missions with staff augmentation and military observers who act as “strategic scouts” and “strategic enablers.”27 In addition to benefits to readiness and emergency response, the Army Reserve Command’s Private Public Partnership (P3) program helps to leverage America’s commercial power. Another promising initiative is regionally aligned Security Force Assistance Brigades, focused on improving “the capability and capacity of partner nations’ or regional security organizations’ security forces” to conduct combat operations.28 The relationship-building benefits of these programs are unmistakable.

    The Army, however, does not holistically manage its capabilities for competition in the moral dimension with the same energy that it does for those capabilities in the material dimension. Nested among disparate commands, components and functional authorities, with disjointed mission focus, organizational cultures and force development and management priorities, their institutional disaggregation complicates the ability of theater, operational and tactical commands to calibrate and converge them to conduct MDO and JADO in either competition or conflict.

    The U.S. Army Civil Affairs & Psychological Operations Command (Airborne), or USACAPOC(A), is a clear example of both the problem and much of the solution. With the overwhelming majority of DoD engagement capabilities (over 82 percent of its CA capabilities, 83 percent of its PSYOP capabilities and 71 percent of its IO capabilities), it is the ideal core for a more robust Army command to manage and deploy integrated information-related capabilities, in part because of the unique civilian-acquired knowledge and skills sets of its members. It is an Army reserve organization that the Army should designate as a multi-component command with active component, information-related capability forces.29 With its seven-year Force 2025 strategy, USACAPOC(A)’s “harnessing collective influence” approach looks to integrate CA/PSYOP/IO and grow functional specialist and other human capital in partnership with private sector and non-governmental organizations. This is good, but not enough.

    USACAPOC(A) constitutes 5 percent of the Army Reserve, yet accounts for over 20 percent of its deployed operations tempo. Continued high demand presents unique challenges for Army and joint commands that need CA/PSYOP/IO more than ever for competition missions. The Army and the joint force have difficulty accessing them, short of partial or full-scale mobilization, due to cumbersome Cold War-era mobilization authorities and budgetary mechanisms. This, and USACAPOC(A)’s force, training and readiness management practices, follow a conventional big-war model, ill-suited for continuous competition. Rather than functioning as a much-needed operational integration command, USACAPOC(A) is a force provider of small teams and personnel to tactical and operational commands for exercises and operational support.

    USACAPOC(A) is not optimally structured for success in the competition continuum. And if it is not optimally structured to integrate physical and informational power, then neither is the Army nor the joint force.

    Securing the Victory in Competition

    Addressing this critical vulnerability calls for changes at the wholesale as well as retail level. For starters, to expand MDO beyond its predominantly physical domains requires institutionalizing an informational, human or cognitive domain. For General Robert Brown, former commander of U.S. Army Pacific, the cognitive is the most important of all domains.30

    To integrate military-civilian physical and informational power, the Army should establish an engagement or influence warfighting function, with its own unified command structure, such as a U.S. Army Engagement Command. It should also establish a center of excellence to organize all the forces and activities – with strategic direction from the Defense Security Cooperation Agency – that should be able to maneuver in competition the same way that infantry and armor do in combat.

    The conceptualization, organization, command and control, development, management, equipping, deployment and employment of Army engagement forces must be done with the same rigor as is done for combat forces. In addition to their own domain and command, they need representation on the Army and joint staffs – e.g., the Army G9 covers installation management, while the Joint Staff J9 is now an advanced concepts and technology directorate. Any use of the “9” staff designation should be for the engagement function to coordinate related forces and activities in a command area of responsibility.

    To operationalize moral-material integration and win in competition, the Army should: institutionally converge and calibrate its engagement forces and activities; foster a learning organization within and beyond military structures; and seize opportunities to be a greater force for engagement and influence through collaboration in national strategic initiatives, such as the Stabilization Assistance Review and the Global Engagement Center. It must build an industrial base in applied social sciences, related individual and organizational learning technologies, and political and civil information management and human terrain mapping and analysis systems. Above all, it must invest in people more than platforms. It should cultivate strategic and operational capital through its recruiting and talent management initiatives. This will enable the Army to gain and maintain strategic initiative and optionality, to win left-of-bang and to preserve blood and treasure. These actions can enable the Army, borrowing from the Civil Affairs motto – Secure the Victory – to dominate in strategic competition.

    Much is already afoot. The Army must move quickly, however. As 88th Readiness Division Commanding General Major General Darrell Guthrie cautioned in his 2019 guidance to his former Civil Affairs command: “We must become an adaptable, agile learning organization or we will be replaced by one that is.”31

     

    This report was first published by Association of the United States Army, in Spotlight 20-4, August 2020. It can also be downloaded as a pdf.

    Colonel Holshek, USA, Ret., is Vice President for Military Affairs of the Civil Affairs Association and Senior Civil-Military Advisor to Narrative Strategies, LLC, the Alliance for Peacebuilding and the NATO Resilient Civilians project. The opinions expressed in this report are his own.

     

    Notes

    1. Lieutenant General Eric J. Wesley, USA and Colonel Robert H. Simpson, USA, Ret., Expanding the Battlefield: An Important Fundamental of Multi-Domain Operations, Land Warfare Paper 131 (Arlington, VA: Association of the United States Army, April 2020), 2.
    2. Department of the Army (DA), U.S. Army Training and Doctrine (TRADOC) Pamphlet 525-3-1, The U.S. Army in Multi-Domain Operations 2028 (Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, December 2018), 17.
    3. Wesley and Simpson, Expanding the Battlefield, 2.
    4. General James N. Mattis, Summary of the 2018 National Defense Strategy: Sharpening the American Military’s Competitive Edge (Washington, D.C.: DoD, 19 January 2018), 4.
    5. Kelly McCoy, “In the Beginning, there was Competition: The Old Idea behind the New American Way of War,” The Modern War Institute, 11 April 2018.
    6. Nadia Schadlow, War and the Art of Governance: Consolidating Combat Success into Political Victory (Washington, D.C.: Georgetown University Press, 2017), 2.
    7. Joint Chiefs of Staff, Joint Concept for Integrated Campaigning (Washington, DC: DoD, 16 March 2018), 4.
    8. U.S. Department of State (DoS), U.S. Agency for International Development and DoD, Stabilization Assistance Review: A Framework for Maximizing the Effectiveness of U.S. Government Efforts to Stabilize Conflict-affected Areas (Washington, D.C., 2018); DoD Directive 3000.05, Stabilization (Washington, DC: DoD, 13 December 2018).
    9. Christopher Holshek, 2020 Civil Affairs Roundtable Report Roundtable Goes Virtual—and Viral—in Response to Coronavirus (Fort Bragg, NC: 5 May 2020), 2.
    10. Joint Chiefs of Staff, Joint Concept for Operating in the Information Environment (Washington, DC: DoD, 25 July 2018), iii, vii-vii and 7.
    11. Joint Concept for Operating in the Information Environment, xi and 35–39.
    12. Harry R. Yarger, Strategic Theory for the 21st Century: The Little Book on Big Strategy (Carlisle, PA: Army Strategic Studies Institute, February 2006), 5–6.
    13. Joint J-7, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Instruction 1800.01F, Officer Professional Military Education Policy (Washington, DC: DoD, 15 May 2020), A-A-1.
    14. Brigadier General Huba Wass de Czege, USA, Ret., Commentary on “The U.S. Army in Multi-Domain Operations” (Carlisle, PA: Army Strategic Studies Institute, April 2020), 17.
    15. Cleveland et al., Military Strategy in the 21st Century: People, Connectivity, and Competition (New York: Cambria Press, 2018) and Emile Simpson, War from the Ground Up: Twenty-First-Century Combat as Politics, (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2018).
    16. Sean McFate, The New Rules of War: Victory in the Age of Durable Disorder (New York: William Morrow, 2019), 16.
    17. Sydney J. Freedberg, Jr., “Army To Build New Info War Force—Fast,” Breaking Defense, 22 August 2019.
    18. Eric Larson, Richard Darilek, Daniel Gibran, Brian Nichiporuk, Amy Richardson, Lowell Schwartz, Cathryn Quantic Thurston, Foundations of Effective Influence Operations: A Framework for Enhancing Army Capabilities (Santa Monica, Arlington, Pittsburgh: RAND Arroyo Center, 2009), 1-201.
    19. Ajit Maan and Thomas Ricks, “Narratives are about ‘meaning,’ not ‘truth,” Foreign Policy, Thomas E. Ricks, 3 December 2015; Ajit Maan, Narrative Warfare (Scotts Valley, CA: CreateSpace, 2018) and Plato’s Fear (Scotts Valley, CA: CreateSpace, 2020).
    20. DA TRADOC Pamphlet 525-8, U.S. Army Functional Concept for Engagement (Fort Eustis, VA, 24 February 2014).
    21. TRADOC Pamphlet 525-3-1, C-10.
    22. Mattis, Summary of the 2018 National Defense Strategy, 4–5.
    23. Sydney J. Freeburg, Jr., “Fog of Information War: Army Asks Civilians, Allies for Aid,” Breaking Defense, 25 September 2019.
    24. Assad A. Raza, “Collaboration: Key to Successful Civil-Military Operations,” Eunomia Journal, 20 May 2020
    25. Joint Chiefs of Staff, Joint Publication 3-08, Interorganizational Cooperation (Washington, DC: DoD, 12 October 2016), I-11.
    26. See the Defense Security Cooperation Agency website.
    27. Christopher Holshek, “America Needs Peacekeeping Missions More Than Ever,” Foreign Policy, 10 November 2015
    28. Army Techniques Publication ATP 3-96.1, Security Force Assistance Brigade (Washington, DC: Headquarters, Department of the Army, 2 May 2018), 1-3.
    29. Major Assad A. Raza, “True Civil Affairs Integration: From Three Tribes to One,” Eunomia Journal, Civil Affairs Association, 31 October 2019 [updated 8 June 2020].
    30. Major Kimber Nettis, USAF, Multi-Domain Operations: Bridging the Gaps for Dominance, Sixteenth Air Force (Air Forces Cyber) newsletter, 16 March 2020.
    31. Christopher Holshek, “Executive Summary,” in Integrating Civil Affairs, Civil Affairs Issue Papers, vol. 6, 2019–2020 (Arlington, VA: Association of the United States Army, April 2020), 11.
  • A warning system for hybrid threats – is it possible?

    While many policymakers like to refer to ‘connecting the dots’ to derive accurate pictures of forthcoming events, this picture is highly inaccurate and unhelpful. In the case of hybrid threats, the dots are missing because they fall below the threshold, they look different due to deception or disinformation, or are impossible to understand due to some kind of encryption.

    By: Sebastiaan Rietjens

    A warning system is a crucial ingredient in countering hybrid threats. Informing the decision-makers of affected countries as well as the population at large enables them to take appropriate measures. However, as Patrick Cullen (2018) convincingly argued in his Strategic Analysis, hybrid threats are wicked problems. They are ambiguous and fuzzy and lack proven knowledge and fixed standards to adequately address them. This makes devising a warning system for such threats intrinsically difficult and challenging.

    Before hybrid threats materialize, they often send out only weak signals that are hard to detect and cannot easily be linked to any known trend or phenomenon (Kuosa, 2014). Moreover, these weak signals reside in a massive amount of irrelevant or misleading information, often referred to as noise (Gentry & Gordon, 2019). Furthermore, as Cullen argues, “hybrid threats are designed to blur the distinction between peace and war, as well as complicate and fall below the target’s detection and response thresholds”. He therefore concludes that hybrid threats require new solutions for warning. Treverton et al. (2018, p. 91) reach a similar conclusion when they state that warning for hybrid threats is “tricky but not impossible”, and Nyheim (2015, p. 16) also stresses the need to adapt warning methods to the “emerged reality of hybrid conflicts”.

    This Strategic Analysis addresses this call for attention and explores how the warning process, including communicating these warnings in a timely manner, should be adapted to the context of hybrid threats. In doing so, the analysis draws upon insights from the strategic warning and early warning literature as well as the literature on complexity theory. Overall, it builds on Cullen’s strategic analysis by focusing on the “how” of warning.

    To this end, the paper discusses four phases in the warning process: (1) the direction of the warning efforts, (2) collecting the information, (3) analyzing the threats, and (4) communicating the warning analyses.

     

    This is an excerpt from Rietjen’s paper “A warning system for hybrid threats – is it possible?”. Read the full paper published in Hybrid CoE Strategic Analysis 22, June 2020.

  • Is Freedom Just Another Word?

    Whether freedom’s just another word depends on those who use or abuse it. It cannot be doled out to us; we must take it, and all that goes with it.

    By: Christopher Holshek

    As editor of my high school newspaper, I interviewed our principal, Herbert Fliegner. Starting in the Hitler Youth, he was pressed, as a child soldier, to defend Berlin, then again involuntarily inducted into the Young Pioneers in the Soviet zone before escaping to West Germany. After he emigrated to the United States, the Army drafted him. Unlike most Americans, with conscription in three national armies, Mr. Fliegner experienced three modern forms of government — fascism, communism, and democracy.

    During the discussion of freedom of expression, including inflammatory articles in our paper and spontaneous student protests, Mr. Fliegner peered at me over his spectacles. “Freedom is not license to just do what you want”, he said in his thick Teutonic accent. “With each and every right comes an equal and concomitant responsibility”, he paused. “When you fail to assume those responsibilities, sooner or later you will forfeit the rights that go with them.” Those words have stuck with me ever since.

    Freedom, at least as a word, has had quite a bit of airplay lately. There was a “distorted discussion of freedom” in the hyper-politicization of the false choice between economic livelihood and personal and community safety, culminating in the imagery of beachcombers and partygoers massed in defiance of coronavirus social protocols.

    In many ways, the fear-based stay-at-home messaging has worked too well, as British author Frank Furedi suggested in Spiked. “This is why so many people seem willing to accept such a grievous loss of freedom — because they want to be safe.” Especially since 9/11, the deification of safety and security has pervaded nearly every aspect of life to the point of dominating all other social values — played out in narratives that heroize those in the business of protection, from soldiers to police to health care professionals.

    The barrages of bad news, political upheavals, and rapid-fire crises of late have accelerated an acculturated insecurity and its addiction to safety. All the made-up mayhem distracts from any sense of control over personal or community life, shoving us toward simple autocratic solutions for complex, collaborative problems. It tears the guiding threads of age-old norms in the fabric of civil society and our resilience to manipulation. “Control requires a willingness to attempt to manage and live with uncertainty”, Furedi pointed out. “Unfortunately, the capacity for dealing with uncertainty has been undermined by a culturally induced sense of helplessness.”

    In the swirl of worldwide pandemic, telling others to “stay safe” has become a ritualistic twist of narrative — a way of reinforcing the widely held belief that we are constantly at risk, so we have to accept and do what we’re told. Except that more and more of us aren’t buying it.

    The tension between freedom and security is nothing new. Security is among the most basic of human motives, as Abraham Maslow would attest. Alexander Hamilton warned that “even the ardent love of liberty will, after a time, give way to its dictates.

    ”Freedom, on the other hand, is an appeal to something much higher in the human condition, and thus much harder to gain and sustain. The struggle for liberty, not security, is the traditional default of America’s national operating software. Some have explained it in terms of “freedom” meaning different things to different people. Irbam X. Kenid recently posed in The Atlantic that this dichotomy in American culture lies in “reconciling the unreconcilable: individual freedom and community freedom”, or the freedom of the slaveholder versus the slave. One is the individual freedom to enslave, disenfranchise, exploit, impoverish, demean, and silence; whereas the other is the communal freedom from all these injustices.

    “From the beginning of the American project, the powerful individual has been battling for his constitutional freedom to harm, and the vulnerable community has been battling for its constitutional freedom from harm. Both freedoms were inscribed into the U.S. Constitution, into the American psyche.” The current pandemic, Kenid further argues, is eviscerating “the very core of American existence: the slaveholder clamoring for his freedom to infect, and the enslaved clamoring for our freedom from infection.”

    This is an interesting framing of the problem. In understanding freedom, however, it is also inadequate. What Kenid and others, including white supremacists, are really missing is the difference between freedom and privilege — another word for freedom without responsibility. Digital journalist Justin King, in his video essay, noted how “those who have focused solely on their rights and not on their responsibilities, their obligations to humanity and society… it just reeks of privilege.”

    Privilege is the entitlement of a few to do anything without obligation; freedom is the right of all to do what they deem essential to their way of life — provided they respect the right of others to do likewise. The Golden Rule. When Amy Cooper, a self-professed liberal, threatened to call the cops on Christian Cooper in Central Park, she was exercising privilege, because she took no responsibility for the consequences of her action. Even “if you have the right to do anything”, King went on, “you also have shared responsibility for everything.” If you refuse the latter, then you can’t expect to have and hold the former — which is what Mr. Fliegner was talking about.

    The pandemic has done its part to reinvigorate this core discussion of American identity. The murder of George Floyd in broad daylight by an officer of the law has triggered what retired Admiral Mike Mullen called “an inflection point” on whether all or some are eligible to enjoy the blessings of liberty. Beyond the conflict between the better and lesser angels of our nature, freedom vs. privilege has been the root question since the founders forged a Republic out of a compromise with the demons of racism for the sake of national unity.

    Now, for the very same reason, we must exorcise them.

    “The hate epidemic is far more destructive to our well-being and survival than the COVID-19 pandemic could ever be”, social scientist Renu Persaud pointed out. “There is no treatment for the malaise of racial inequality. The treatment depends on our pre-existing potential for compassion.” Freedom, however, requires more than empathy.

    “Historically, the virtue of courage was regarded as the most effective antidote to fear. Western society still holds courage in high regard”, Faredi reminded us. “As the philosopher Hannah Arendt explained, courage not only provides society with hope — it also underwrites society’s capacity to exercise freedom.” Moral or civil courage — the willingness to walk what we talk — is the responsibility of the many and not just the few.

    In today’s post-truth psycho-system, its pursuit is especially arduous. “In everyday life we have become so estranged from it that we do very little to cultivate it”, Faredi observed. “In effect, the ideal of courage has been downsized, reduced to just another instrument in a self-help toolkit.” The same goes for moral consciousness, which the American theologian Thomas Merton called “the soul of freedom” in No Man Is an Island. “Without conscience, freedom never knows what to do with itself.” This is why rights cannot exist without responsibilities.

    The struggle we now face is what retired Marine general and former defense secretary James Mattis called, in his rebuke of Donald Trump, “a wholesome and unifying demand — one that all of us should be able to get behind. We can come through this trying time stronger, and with a renewed sense of purpose and respect for one another. The pandemic has shown us that it is not only our troops who are willing to offer the ultimate sacrifice for the safety of the community. Americans in hospitals, grocery stores, post offices, and elsewhere have put their lives on the line in order to serve their fellow citizens and their country. We must summon that unity to surmount this crisis — confident that we are better than our politics.”

    The question of whether there should be “new birth of freedom,” as Lincoln called it, has already been answered. The question is whether we can recognize the call to action of our time and assume its inherent responsibilities, to each other as well as ourselves. “If you want change in America, go and register to vote. That is the change we need in this country”, Atlanta mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms implored her fellow citizens.

    Freedom, indeed, is not free. This generational call to join the march of inclusiveness in the American journey to form a more perfect Union requires far more than social media posts or the cleverest memes or slogans. That journey entails a marathon, not a sprint. Nor is its outcome a given. Whether freedom’s just another word depends on those who use or abuse it. It cannot be doled out to us; we must take it, and all that goes with it.

    “Just remember, this country was founded on protest: it is called the American Revolution, and every step of progress in this country, every expansion of freedom, every expression of our deepest ideals has been won through efforts that made the status quo uncomfortable”, former president Obama reminded younger Americans in a virtual town meeting. “And we should all be thankful for folks who are willing, in a peaceful, disciplined way, to be out there making a difference.” In other words, freedom, like democracy itself, grows from the ground up.

    There is a reason why demonstrations for racial justice in America are taking place in nearly 20 other countries as well as 50 states. If the experiment in self-governance fails over here, it will likely fail over there. What Hong Kongese are doing is inspiring, a reminder of how freedom cannot come cheaply. We owe them — and ourselves — the same display of compassion, courage, conscientiousness, and commitment. “Only by adopting a new path — which means, in truth, returning to the original path of our founding ideals — will we again be a country admired and respected at home and abroad”, Mattis concluded.

    “Follow your bliss”, the American mythologist Joseph Campbell advised his students; but bliss, like freedom, is not just doing what you want. It’s doing what you know is right, as an individual, as you find your place in the world. It’s taking responsibility for the destiny that calls you to a higher purpose than self-preservation.

     

    This blog post was first published at Medium, 5 June 2020.

  • Coronavirus, invisible threats and preparing for resilience

    The coronavirus pandemic is the security scenario we were least prepared for. While nation states are responsible for security, they depend highly upon civilian resources and resilient populations. This is a test for civil-military cooperation and requires a comprehensive approach.

    By: Gunhild Hoogensen Gjørv

    Just like the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union – and despite the warnings – we really did not see this coming. The possibility of a global pandemic has long been bandied around as hypothetical threat. But had health been seriously considered more broadly as a security issue, we might have thought more effectively about this scenario, and prepared for it differently.

    Framing a pandemic as a security issue does not mean “it is time to panic,” nor that a pandemic should be equated to a war or a military issue. It is, however, definitely a security issue. As such, the pandemic requires clear heads and the best information possible, often in a situation of incomplete data. This crisis illustrates the complex nature of security, where multiple actors are involved and civilians are central to understanding the security picture.

    Today, we are surrounded by incomplete information, misleading information, disinformation and, in fact, too much information (an “infodemic”). This overload of information and fake news targets people with a view to trigger actions and reactions which could contribute to potential destabilisation. Reduced trust and/or increased polarisation between people and their governments affects how populations respond to crises.

    The coronavirus crisis provides insight into challenges that do not typically fall under militarised (use of force) security but could nevertheless destabilise, if not cripple, whole societies. It is an important test of “resilience” across society, as well as an opportunity to revisit how we define “resilience”.

    The pandemic increases our understanding of security scenarios, including those associated with hybrid threats and hybrid warfare, where militaries or NATO are not the primary security actors. Yet, at the same time these actors need to be able to react proportionally, mitigate harm, and adjust thinking according to context. As part of ensuring national preparedness, it is important to evaluate the extent to which our understandings of resilience are realistic and/or need modification, and who is included in that process.

    Resilience

    Article 3 of NATO’s founding treaty addresses resilience, with the expectation that each member country is able to resist and recover from a major shock such as a natural disaster, failure of critical infrastructure, or a hybrid or armed attack on the basis of “their individual and collective capacity”. Resilience is understood as “a society’s ability to resist and recover easily and quickly from such shocks and combines both civil preparedness and military capacity.”

    Resilience reflects an ability to “bounce back” and tackle a crisis and/or threat, but also an ability to evolve or adapt to abrupt and potentially long-lasting change. Assumptions about resilience are evident in narratives about “returning back to normal” after the coronavirus crisis. Such assumptions do not take into account how changes themselves may become normalised over time, and how attitudes and behaviours – not least among citizens – change as a result. People expect governments to solve a crisis as soon as possible. But what if, like in the coronavirus crisis, that is not possible? Resilience in society may demand adjustments to “new” normals, including new perceptions of insecurity.

    Examining the current pandemic is useful for reviewing our understanding of resilience as well as national and NATO preparedness for three reasons:

    1. The COVID-19 virus presents a threat to the health, economy and social cohesion of societies on a global level, generating a crisis response.
    2. The pandemic increases our understanding of how governments and populations respond to such a widespread crisis over time.
    3. It is simultaneously a crisis that is increasingly subjected to attempts to politicise it through disinformation campaigns, which provides us with real-time data on how societies and their populations react when crises are further complicated by politics.

    Invisible, hybrid and “grey zone” threats

    Threats to society today are increasingly generated through non-military or non-violent means. Rather than crossing borders with tanks or firing weapons, adversaries have found easier ways to create crises or conflict. Today’s strategy of choice for state and non-state actors is to use disinformation or cyberattacks to erode trust in authorities and foster societal and/or political unrest, for example, by undermining services and infrastructure, promoting extremism or violence, and exploiting existing politicised vulnerabilities from elections, to migration, to pandemics. Such destabilisation activities are often cheaper to conduct than armed attacks – they pose invisible threats, which are difficult to detect and trace, and to attribute to a specific adversary.

    Though not necessarily an enemy in itself, disease is an invisible threat, which can be used politically and has recently been exploited for the purposes of misinformation, disinformation and infodemics. We need to understand how invisible threats – whether generated by human activity or natural causes – can be operationalised and, often unwittingly, amplified by average citizens.

    Many of the invisible threats and attacks that lead to destabilisation are commonly referred to as “hybrid”. Evolving from earlier conceptions of hybrid warfare, which maintained a kinetic or lethal component, the increased use of information warfare and targeting of public opinion as well as cyberattacks on infrastructure became a core distinguishing feature by 2014.

    Invisible, hybrid threats are a central feature of “grey zone” conflicts, a term that refers to the increasingly blurred distinction between peace and war, creating a “continuum of conflict”. War has always had an “end state.” The distinction between peace and war are far less clear now as disinformation and cyberattacks are continuous, rolling campaigns designed to disrupt and destablise, possibly without end. The grey zone encompasses measures that create destabilisation and conflict below the threshold of overt violence, including disruptive tactics such as disinformation, psychological operations and destabilising legal processes. Crisis and conflict are part of the same continuum of insecurity, where crisis is an earlier stage of instability and uncertainty before conflict that represents even greater, hostile instability, which can move from a non-violent to violent nature. Much of this continuum represents instabilities that are not strictly military in nature.

    One of the largest challenges is that we do not adequately know how civilian populations will react and/or behave during a crisis. Our resilience baseline requirements are top down, that is, dependent upon state and alliance actors to implement, often making a default assumption that average civilians are passive elements in a crisis situation. However, lack of trust in authorities could lead to increased “self-help” solutions by individuals or groups of people based on false or misleading information. Thus, defence against disruption or destabilisation requires not only state-based measures, but also societal capacities.

    Reinvigorating a comprehensive approach?

    Preparing for the complexity of invisible and hybrid threats requires a much more complex approach than for conventional warfare. It calls for a flexible balance and coordination between civil and military resources depending on the nature of the crisis. A comprehensive approach includes a large repertoire of non-military-centric responses, allowing for different constellations of actors according to the context.

    Resilience is an important component in a comprehensive approach and civilian resilience (both institutional and within society itself) is crucial. Elisabeth Braw noted, at a 2018 NATO seminar on civil preparedness, that the civil-military relationship and particularly societal resilience is a part of modern deterrence. This entails an improved civilian situational awareness and a clear understanding of evolving relationships between civilian and military – but prioritises citizen leadership relying on trust between citizens and the authorities to work together and support each other in crisis. However, as Braw also noted, open and democratic societies can be extremely vulnerable to disinformation and polarisation of political views, which destabilises the social trust upon which cooperation relies, and reduces resilience capacities to adapt or “bounce back”.

    Maintaining a well-educated and informed citizenry is essential for an effective comprehensive approach. Independent and transparent information/media outlets combined with rigorous, science-informed and socially responsible education programmes are crucial to in times of crisis. Some NATO member states, including Estonia and Germany, and partner countries such as Sweden and Finland, have issued guidance to their citizens in the form of brochures. Finland even starts its fight against fake news in primary schools.

    Learning from the pandemic

    Hostile actors are using disinformation about the pandemic to polarise views amongst civilians and generate selective distrust, as noted in a recent special report published by the European External Action Service. Selective distrust occurs when people pick and choose which guidelines, measures or authorities to heed, often on the basis of who they are or the politics they represent.

    The ways citizens choose to act and react to disinformation say a lot about how successfully authorities, in cooperation with communities, establish security in society. It makes a difference to security when people express distrust in a unified response to a threat, for example by defying quarantine regulations, hoarding toilet paper or responding with anti-social bravado (‘I am not afraid of a disease’). Those countries that have higher levels of trust – regardless of political regime – have been more successful in combating the pandemic than those with lower trust levels.

    Understanding threats, developing responses, and sharing insights with its member states and cooperating with partners (including the European Union) is a NATO task. Increasingly complex threats require complex solutions. It is clear from the current pandemic that to manage crises, we need to think critically about the role of comprehensive approaches involving multiple actors from governments to research, civil society, the private sector, militaries and police, and not least, citizens in their communities.

    Starting with lessons learned from previous attempts, we need to redesign a comprehensive approach with current contexts in mind, learning from real-time coronavirus crisis data and building from the community/ground up. We need to map resources and strengths that already exist in communities including: developments in education programmes; the role of local civil-society organisation and short-notice capacities to recruit volunteers; availablility and reliability of local resources (transport, energy, communictions, food and water); status of municipal information and preparation measures; and how societal trust works at local, regional and national levels.

    This bottom-up approach combined with the guidance of the baseline requirements for resilience will provide the groundwork to identify further initiatives or gaps to be addressed, including national crisis preparation initiatives supporting civilians, evaluation and preventative strengthening of essential social services (health, transportation, infrastructure) and extensive exercising with multiple civilian actors.

    We need to seize the opportunity provided by the current pandemic to learn crucial lessons about trust, resilience, comprehensive approaches, and the complexities involved in creating and ensuring security in todays’s world of invisible threats.

     

    The article was first published in NATO Review, 20 May 2020.

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